Wisconsin MBB Analytics: Why AJ Storr is the "Perfect Fit" for the Badgers
Transfer Wing AJ Storr - Player Metrics, Play-Type Profile, Shot-Type Profile:
TOPICS:
Player Metric Trends 2022-2023
Shot Profile
Final Thoughts
New 2023-2024 - 247 Composite Rating
Player Metrics - Season Trend:
Points/Shot:
Points/Shot Formula = Points / FGAs + (0.5*FTA)
Season Average = 1.07 Points/Shot
AJ Storr had an impressive season, scoring at least 0.80 points per shot in 27 out of 33 games. That’s only 6 cold nights all year, and a majority of those games came early in the season. Storr also had an unbelievable 13 games in which he broke the 1.20 Points/Shot barrier!!! That’s EXTREMELY efficient shooting
It looks as though his #’s did slide a bit down the stretch, but so did Essegians. You’d have to think that:
Frosh Ceiling/Stamina plays a significant factor
Teams begin to realize (as they did with Essegian) you cannot give him open looks.
Points Created/USG%:
Points-Created/USG% Formula = (Per40 Points + Per40AST Value) / (USG% * 100)
Season Average = 1.02 Points-Created/USG%
Normally, a Player’s Points-Created/USG% is HIGHER than his Points/Shot. This isn’t the case for Storr. Why is it usually higher?
Well, Assists allows you to create much higher value per “USG %” than just shooting because, unlike shooting, you only get an AST added to your USG unless it’s a make. So an AST, especially 3P ASTs, is a gold mine for adding value on a USG basis!! Storr turns it over more than he dishes to teammates for scores, so he dips in his Points/USG vs. Points/Shot
Ball Security Factor:
Ball Security Factor Formula = DREB% + ( AST RATE - TO RATE) + STL%
Average Ball-Security Factor = 5%
This graph gives me the most hope for Storr to receive the level of minutes people expect him to get at UW next year.
You have to be able to take care of the basketball for Gard & Staff to give you consistent minutes. Through Storr’s first 16 games, he ended roughly half of those at or below 0% Ball Security. That is not good. BUT!
In games 17-33, he had only ONE Game at or below 0% Ball Security!!
This is tremendous development in a season and a terrific sign that lack of ball security won’t limit the number of minutes he’ll see as a Badger!!!
USAGE %:
USAGE % Formula = % of Team’s FGAs, FTs, AST, TOs while on Court
Average USG % = 20%
This chart is really interesting because when you compare AJ Storr's Points/Shot chart to his Points-Created/USG% chart, you'll notice that his Points/Shot are consistently high while his Points-Created/USG% are all over the place.
Here’s the dichotomy:
In games where Storr has a low usage rate (USG) of less than 20%, he has a Points-Created of more than 1.00 about 68.8% of the time.
However, when his USG is high (more than 20%), he only achieves a Points-Created of more than 1.00 about 47.1% of the time.
The advantage for Storr is that he’ll be playing alongside Essegian, which means they can share the production load. Thus reducing the pressure to perform, and their USG rates will depend more on how well they perform rather than forcing the issue regardless.
This leads me to why I think Storr is the “Perfect Fit” for us!!!
Shot Profile:
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