Badgers Analytics: Tyler Van Dyke QB "Deep Dive"
Let's get into the nitty-gritty with new Wisconsin transfer QB Tyler Van Dyke.
Wisconsin Football got its quarterback in the Transfer Portal in Tyler Van Dyke. I wrote a piece that ran the day he committed, in which I called for Luke Fickell and Co. to go in a different direction.
But the Badgers got Van Dyke on the roster, so let’s take a “Deep Dive” into his career at Miami. What can we glean from a player who had a somewhat tumultuous career, with three different OCs in his 4-Year Miami career? Which sounds a lot like a particular Wisconsin Badgers QB, who was highly touted, and shined early, but struggled late in his career with different OCs. That guy also went on to have a pretty successful campaign with some change in scenery!
But we’re not here to talk about that…so let’s dive into Tyler Van Dyke (TVD)!!
Core QB Passing Metrics | Career Trend:
We’ll start by looking at the Core Metrics I like to look at when evaluating Passing Ability. Passing Composite (PC) & On-TGT & Air Yards/Att (AY/A) which make up PC.
Initially, we’ll look at how this has trended over his career. I think this is especially important given the up-and-down nature of his career. It will help highlight what deteriorated in his performance. Then, we’ll scatter-plot the data. We’ll do this to better understand the causes of his poorer performance. Which Longo and Co. should take strong notes of…and avoid!
Wisconsin Football QB TVD | Passing Composite:
Over his career, Tyler Van Dyke has a Passing Composite (On-TGT % * AY/A) of 5.38. Based on a regression analysis I did of PC over YPA for the Top-200 QBs from 2021-2023, that model would predict a 7.21 YPA. So, TVD’s 8.2 YPA would equate to me he got a significant amount of help from his WRs.
Now, 7.21 YPA isn’t extremely efficient by any stretch. But as you can see, there is a significant dip in 2022, where his PC lived below his career average for pretty much the entire season. Stripping out 2022 his PC jumps up to 5.77 which would translate to a 7.48 YPA prediction.
Again that’s not beating Alex Hornibrook in 2017 or Jack Coan in 2019, both of whom had YPA > 8.00! But it certainly is a huge uptick from Tanner Mordecai & Braedyn Lock in 2023 who combined for 5.51 YPA!
This is data from 2017-2022, but 7.5 YPA is the inflection point for Wisconsin historically from a passing efficiency standpoint. When the Badgers above that level, they rarely if ever lose!
Are the Passing Composite issues of 2022 an On-Target Problem or AY/A Problem? Because one can be fixed quite easily. The other is a bit trickier to overcome or alter year to year.
Wisconsin Football QB TVD | On-Target %:
There was a bit of a dip in 2022, but nothing significantly below average…
Wisconsin Football QB TVD | AY/A:
Here is a bit more clear dip in performance. In all of 2022, TVD’s AY/A never cracked 9 Yards/ATT. Essentially, he lost all of his aggressiveness in pushing the ball downfield. And given his quite stable On-TGT %, this isn’t the play to maximize his success as a QB.
Especially when you look at his Deep Ball Throwing ability vs. other Top QBs:
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